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China is well positioned to have close relations with those who might overthrow the Mullahs. China has established trade relations with Iran, and these trade relationships will endure political change.

True, turmoil in the Middle East makes China more vulnerable to blockade threats from a U.S. Japan coalition seeking to blockade China. But the Belt & Road is resilient, not like the Burma Road of WWII, and China’s Navy will not be easy to eliminate in order to impose a blockade. This threat is not worthy of consideration.

China’s PLA does not need a distraction “to squeeze Taiwan”. That really is silly. If the Taiwan independence movement decides to declare independence, the war will begin and will be over soon. Those who are elected to lead the Republic of China refuse to say “Republic of China. They fly the flag of the Republic of China and deceive Americans into calling it the “Taiwanese flag”. Those who declare war upon Mandarin speakers must rely upon a Mandarin speaking military. The PLA will be welcomed by the Mandarin speaking military of the Republic of China.

This last point, that turmoil in the Middle East will distract the U.S. and give opportunities to the PLA is an extremely trivial and shallow point.

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